But the fact that these have equal expected values (~0.95 points) doesn’t mean a coach should be indifferent between the two - and it certainly doesn’t mean he should take the “low risk” option by default (as coaches still seem wont to do). If you go for 1 point, you’ll likely succeed around 95 percent of the time 3 if you go for 2 points, you’ll cash in roughly half as often, 4 with twice the prize. But now going for 1 and going for 2 yield more or less the same number of points, on average, once you factor in how likely each is to succeed. The math would be more complicated if the NFL hadn’t moved the extra point back to the 15-yard line. 2 So before we stick a model on it, let’s try to reason our way through the question. Let’s say you’re skeptical about WPA and EPA and OSHA and RADAR and WAROZ and other collections of capital letters that tell you what to do. In that spirit, let’s try to figure out when you should go for 2. I see the value in being cautious about adopting new strategies and generally think the burden should be on the purveyors of new techniques and tactics not only to find rigorous, workable proposals, but also to explain them compellingly - for coaches, players, decision-makers and the sports-viewing public. Which is not to say their resistance to change is entirely unfounded. Although NFL coaches have a level of expertise about the game of football that most of us will never approach, it’s hard to give them the benefit of the doubt when they’ve collectively demonstrated an inability to master basic tactical decisions - like when you should go for 2 points when your team is down 2 points (spoiler: pretty much always). Yet, rather than criticize the decision for materially damaging the Giants’ chances of advancing in the playoffs, commentator Troy Aikman praised the move, explaining that “the chart would say go for 2 and try to tie it up,” but “there’s a lot of time left in this game.” 1ĭespite the revolution taking place in basketball, despite Theo Epstein ending the two greatest curses in sports, despite AlphaGo going 60-0 against top human players, despite all evidence to the contrary, football stubbornly clings to the notion that experience always trumps analysis. Despite having the opportunity to tie the game with a 2-point conversion, the Giants proceeded to kick an extra point. With 5:16 left in the third quarter of their wild-card playoff game in January, the New York Giants scored a touchdown to pull within 2 points of the Green Bay Packers. The 3-point try keeps teams in the game, as an 18-point deficit is still a two-score game.“I can’t help but ask, one day many years later, when you find your previous awareness, cognition and choices are all wrong, will you keep going along the wrong path or reject yourself?” - Gu Li, a 9-dan Go champion, after losing to AlphaGo, Google’s nigh-unbeatable deep learning AI. Some teams in the NFL have enforced defensive penalties on tries by moving the line of scrimmage to go for 2 instead of kicking, but this will not be allowed in the USFL. Even calling a timeout will not give a team the option to change their mind, and a penalty will not allow for a change, either. Once a team declares which try they would like to attempt, that decision is final and cannot be changed. In contrast, the XFL awarded the defense whatever point value the offense was trying for if they were able to create a turnover and run it back for a score. The major differences are that in the USFL, the defense can return a try, but for only 2 points if they are successful, regardless of the try attempt. The XFL in 2020 offered the same 3-point try from the same yard line on the field.
#Touchdown points professional#
This is not the first time a professional spring league has offered a 3-point try. The third option is to run a play from the 10-yard line, and if successful, the offense will add an additional 3 points. Also, they can go for 2 by running a play from the 2-yard line. A team can attempt the traditional 1-point try via a scrimmage kick, snapped from the 15-yard line. The first 2 options may sound familiar, since they are the only options offered by the NFL. In an attempt to make games more exciting for fans, as well as keep trailing teams in the hunt for a comeback win, the USFL is offering their teams 3 different options for their extra point (or points) following a touchdown.
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